Package economics study

Study 11 of 12

The Economics of Swim Lesson Packages: Price, Continuity and Cancellations

What the records show when a finite bundle replaces repeated one-at-a-time purchases—and where the evidence stops.

$273.42Median canonical package payment295 positive customer-spend facts
$77,726.88Recorded package customer spendAcross 164 families and eight businesses
10.3%Package cancellation-document share234 canceled and 2,029 non-canceled records
30.8%Scheduled activity at days 181–36520 of 65 age-eligible package relationships

Finding 1

A package represented a materially larger checkout decision

The median canonical package payment was $273.42, compared with $133 for plans and $60 for individual lessons. The package middle 50% ran from $157.53 to $300.

Payment value is not the same as revenue per lesson. Package size, duration, discounts, swimmer count and later credit usage all affect unit economics.

Finding 2

Package relationships showed durable but finite continuity

Among package relationships old enough to observe the entire window, 76.4% had scheduled activity during days 31–90, 41.6% during days 91–180 and 30.8% during days 181–365.

That was stronger than individual-lesson relationships in every later window and weaker than plans in the two longest windows.

Finding 3

Package lesson records had the lowest observed cancellation share

Canceled documents represented 10.3% of package canceled-plus-non-canceled lesson records, compared with 15.4% for plans and 17.9% for individual lessons.

This comparison is not risk-adjusted. Package buyers may differ in commitment, schedule stability, provider mix and season from families buying individual lessons.

Finding 4

The repurchase moment remains unmeasured

A finite package creates a clear renewal decision when credits run low. The current dataset can observe later payments, but it does not yet contain a randomized reminder cohort or a canonical package-exhaustion date for every legacy purchase.

The next defensible experiment is to randomize low-credit reminders and measure incremental 30- and 60-day repurchase—not raw conversion among alerted families.

Canonical payment size by product

ProductPayment facts25th percentileMedian75th percentile
Individual lesson6,211$38.56$60.00$64.60
Subscription plan2,510$99.75$133.00$190.00
Package295$157.53$273.42$300.00
Group program535$33.25$189.00$350.00

Cancellation-document share

Lesson typeNon-canceledCanceledCanceled share
Package2,02923410.3%
Plan8,2311,49715.4%
Individual9,3922,04517.9%
Semi-private65223526.5%

Methodology

How the benchmark was produced

This article intentionally combines three aggregate datasets—canonical financial facts, scheduled lesson relationships and cancellation documents—without treating them as one row-level cohort.

  • Payment results use active, medium/high-confidence, positive USD earning facts through July 31, 2026.
  • Continuity results group non-canceled historical lessons by business and family.
  • Cancellation share uses canceled divided by canceled plus qualifying non-canceled lesson documents for each product.
  • Every table preserves its own denominator; records are not joined across the published output.

Operator response

What to do with this finding

  1. Compare package economics per delivered lesson, not merely per checkout.
  2. Monitor the date when a family approaches its final usable credit.
  3. Measure package cancellations separately from expiration and non-repurchase.
  4. Use randomized low-credit reminders before claiming that renewal messaging creates lift.

Limitations

What this data cannot establish

  • The financial, continuity and cancellation cohorts use different eligibility rules and cannot be combined into one conversion funnel.
  • Package purchasers self-select and may differ from other families before purchase.
  • Historical package product classification is incomplete for some revenue facts.